Thursday, July 30, 2015

El Nino due this year

El Nino is a periodic phenomena brought about by large scale changes in sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific. This leads to world-wide changes in weather. According to this item in Scientific American the expected El Nino later this year is likely to be strong may be like that of 1997:
"So where does that leave us in terms of looking ahead to what El Niño might bring this winter? We have an event that is looking more and more robust (when comparing June 2015 to June 1997, the broad ocean temperature patterns are very similar) and forecasting models are in pretty good agreement that that event will strengthen as we head towards winter and El Niño’s typical peak. But exactly when it will peak and what its final strength will be is still uncertain."
Guyana was badly hit by drought produced by El Nino in 1997. Here is a quote from a UN report from that time:
"Guyana is subject to a period of unprecedented drought caused by the El Nino phenomenon that has been found responsible for as much as 90 per cent of the deficiency in rainfall in September and October 1997 and for the complete failure of a rainy season in mid-November 1997 to mid-January 1998."
No doubt preparations are being made and we have learnt from past lessons.

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