Hope Wind Farm 2022

 This project seems to be moving forward. As it is a ground-breaking project it seems that things will move slowly. According to a report by OilNOW:

"Guyana is now closer to launching its first major initiative in renewable energy. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently granted approval for construction of the US$45M Hope Wind Farm Project. This represents the first substantial utility-scale renewable energy initiative to be implemented in the new oil producing South American country.

According to project documents, the 25.2MW wind farm will generate over 80GWh per year, to be delivered to the Guyana Power and Light (GPL)’s grid according to the terms of a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and Grid Interconnection Agreement. This wind energy therefore represents over 10% of GPL’s gross total electricity generation, enough to supply 7000 homes with power."

Another article appeared in the Guyana Chronicle. 

We look forward to GPL getting a PPA agreed.

Guyana and sea-level rise. Relocating Georgetown?

Sea levels are rising and much of the coast of Guyana, including the capital, Georgetown, is below sea level at high tide. 

Difficult decisions will have to be made which involve planning decades ahead.

How long do we invest in sea defenses which will eventually be abandoned? When do we start relocating the city and coastal communities inland? We need to start building the infrastructure!

A report in Newsroom addresses the issue.

Methane polluters

 Methane is a more dangerous greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Fortunately it is less common. Recently satellites have been used to pin point sources with a view to stopping it from contaminating the atmosphere. Most is emitted by leaking oil facilities. Guyana is not on the map yet.

See this report from phys.org.

Money for combating climate change

 According to a UN report back in June:

"Significant investments are needed and international cooperation is critical. More than a decade ago, developed countries committed to jointly mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 in support of climate action in developing countries."

Unsurprisingly the money has yet to appear. It sounds a lot but the world military expenditure is around $2000 billion per year - twenty times the amount. And that money has been spent already. And it keeps flowing.

If we could put an end to war we could divert a part of this to beneficial uses. Think of the money which could be available for fixing the world, education, health, housing for the poor and so on.

It is strange that this issue is hardly mentioned by world leaders. Why is this?

New asphalt plant to help recycling

According to reports (Newsroom.gy) a new, larger, asphalt plant is shortly to begin operations. It should have the capability of using recycled tyres and plastic in the mix.

"When completed the new Asphalt Plant will be able to produce 160 tonnes of material per hour, reduce road construction costs and produce better roads.
It was noted that the equipment will also use plastic bags, bottles and used tyres to pave roads."

This seems a significant step in promoting recycling in Guyana.

A call to selfless and steadfast service

"If the teachings brought by Bahá’u’lláh are what will enable humanity to advance to the
highest levels of unity, then one must search the soul for the right response. The multitudes who recognized the Báb were summoned to heroism, and their magnificent response is recorded by history. Let every one who is awake to the condition of the world, and to the persistent evils that warp the lives of its inhabitants, heed Bahá’u’lláh’s call to selfless and steadfast service — heroism for the present age. What else will rescue the world but the efforts of countless souls who each make the welfare of humanity their principal, their dominating concern?"

From a message by the Universal House of Justice, October 2019

Who were the Báb and Bahá’u’lláh?

BBC looks at Guyana

Our oil prospects seem to have attracted attention this month. One report starts:

"South America's second poorest nation is bracing for an oil boom that could catapult it to the top of the continent's rich list - and beyond. But can Guyana avoid the so-called oil curse and ensure that its newfound riches benefit all Guyanese?"

This links to an Assignment report (podcast):
"Guyana - bracing for the oil boom"

Meanwhile some are urging caution in the light of changing future prospects of fossil fuels. An article in Stabroek News by Melinda Janki warns:

"Even if the present economics of oil added up (and they clearly don’t) the urgent need to halt global warming means oil will cease to be viable within a few years."

There is general agreement that there will be a time of 'peak oil' after which world demand will drop. Some say it will occur around 2025, other not til 2030s or 2040s. If we wish to curb global warming we had better wish for an early date.

Declining fertility

For many decades the rising human population of our planet has been regarded as a major threat to civilisation, often featured in books and movies. It now becomes clearer that fertility is actually declining in more and more developed countries such as North America, Europe and Japan.

According to a BBC report (my emphasis):

In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime. The fertility rate all but halved to 2.4 children per woman by last year.
But that masks huge variation between nations.
The fertility rate in Niger, west Africa, is 7.1, but in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus women are having one child, on average.
In the UK, the rate is 1.7, similar to most Western European countries.

If the rate is below 2.1 then the population will start to shrink. In some countries the population may be maintained only by increasing life expectancy and immigration each of which have other issues. This finding has huge implications for the future.

Caribbean ICT Roadshow in Guyana in July

The Caribbean Telecommunications Union (CTU) brought its Roadshow here last year. Next month it is bringing its updated Roadshow here with a new program. According to this article at the Ministry of Public Telecommunications (MoPT):

Guyana’s Roadshow will place special emphasis on raising awareness of and educating on the principles of 21st Century Governments – governments that are citizen-centric seamless and make effective use of ICT to deliver services to its citizens, internal and external clients. The Roadshow seeks to lay a foundation for establishing Governments throughout the Caribbean, which are fit for purpose in the 21st Century.

and

The Roadshow’s many activities and workshops will include:
• e-Agriculture Workshop – 9th to 11th July 2018
• 21st Century Government Workshop – 9th July 2018
• ICT4PWD Workshops, targeting the Deaf and Blind – 9th July 2018
• Digital Financial Services – 10th July 2018
• ICT4All – 10th July 2018
• ICT and The Justice Sector – 11th July 2018
• Innovator’s Forum – 11th July 2018
• Future Casting Forum – 11th to 12th July 2018
• Cyber Security Workshop – 12th July 2018
• Youth Fair and Forum – 11th to 13th July 2018

Community building by Baha'i's around the world

This professional video describes remarkable and effective grass-roots community building by Baha'is in many locations from major cities to remote rural villages. It works.

A article at Bahá’í World News Service says in part:

"...the film tells a story of transformation unfolding in 24 communities representing different realities and contexts. It focuses on three main themes: universal participation as a path toward collective prosperity, the vital role of young people in the transformation of society, and the emergence of a range of social and economic development initiatives that spring up from the spiritual aspirations of a population."

The breakdown below gives the locations and the timing.

Chapter One: Embracing Large Numbers 6:53
Gran Canaria, Canary Islands 7:32
Sydney, Australia 11:27
Delhi, India 18:33
Daga, Papua New Guinea 24:52

Chapter Two: Youth Summoned to the Vanguard 30:37
London, United Kingdom 36:05
Mwinilunga East, Zambia 39:48
Baku, Azerbaijan 42:22
San Diego, United States 47:40

Chapter Three: Stirrings of Social Action 52:00
East Kanchanpur, Nepal 53:49
Chişinău, Moldova 54:53
Tanna, Vanuatu 55:55
Batouri-Kette, Cameroon 56:33
Norte Del Cauca, Colombia 59:57
Vancouver, Canada 1:03:37
Bangui, Central African Republic 1:06:11
South Tarawa, Kiribati 1:09:20

Conclusion 1:13:09

Petroleum and Climate Change in Guyana’s Future

In October 2016 Professor Mandle gave a talk on climate change here in Georgetown. I was not aware of it at the time but write it now as I feel it covered some keys points which have not had public attention so far. It was brought to my attention by the Vice-Chancellor of University of Guyana in his address at a similar function recently. It was clear that he also felt it was an important address.

Below is a review of a few keys points of the talk.

The talk was entitled 'Petroleum and Climate Change in Guyana’s Future' and was delivered for the inaugural C.Y.Thomas Distinguished Lecture as a part of the week-long celebration of the University of Guyana 50th Graduation on Thursday 27th October 2016. It delivered by the distinuished Professor Jay Mandle of Colgate University, New York.

The talk consists of some nineteen pages. It can be found online in text format here. One of several references is to an important ECLAC report from 2011 entitled "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Coastal and Human Settlements Sector in Guyana" which is available online here.

The talk starts with some background on the widely respected Professor Thomas. This brief review is concerned primarily with climate change so we will move on to where Professor Mandle begins to focus on Guyana and climate change.

The Coast - in this section some geography is outlined and the vulnerability of Guyana to flooding due to its long-standing and barely adequate system of sea walls and gravity drainage.
Summarising he says:

"In short, global climate change means that the Guyanese Coast will be invaded by both salt and fresh water flooding."

Petroleum - the prospect of large incomes from oil is outlined. The challenge of corruption is identified.

Petro-dollars - four claims on oil dollars are given, namely: a fund for unexpected government spending, poverty-alleviation, increased spending on normal government functions,  a sovereign wealth fund.

The Problem of Adaptation - the question of adaption of the coastal area to climate change and sea level rise is considered.

"With the consequences of climate looming, Guyana would seem to be facing the need to choose between two competing strategies: whether to try to protect the Coast with adaptation, or alternatively, to initiate a substantial if not total relocation to the Interior."

And "...adaptation on the Coast is not a viable option over the long run". 

Interior Development - planning for probable relocation inland will be very challenging and expensive.

"Guyana will have to relocate at least sections of its population, economy, government, and civil society to the Interior. Doing so will be a radical departure for the country."

"Rice, sugar and ground provisions are grown on the Coast. None of these is likely to be part of the country’s comparative advantage structure in the Interior. Entirely new crops will have to be cultivated and new industries will have to be built..."

So it seems sugar has no future in Guyana.

"Access to and from the Interior at the moment is too limited for it to support the level of economic activity that will be necessary."

"Petro-dollars will make it possible to finance much of this investment in infrastructure."

The Need to Debate - public consideration of the issue has yet to begin. This concludes the talk.

"There is much excitement concerning the country’s future as a petroleum exporter. But the need to use those funds to settle the Interior has not been the subject of public discussion. Overcoming this reticence, and debating the merits of Interior development is something that should begin as soon as possible."

Reference is made to the talk in the University of Guyana publication 'Renaissance' to be found here.

University of Guyana forum on climate change

This forum was the tenth in the Turkeyen & Tain Talks by the University of Guyana and was held on November 30, 2017.

The event started with remarks by the Vice-Chancellor, Professor Ivelaw L. Griffith. In introducing the subject he made particular reference to a talk by Professor Mandle in 2016. There will be a follow-up post on the talk by Professor Mandle soon.

The chairman and moderator was Dr Paulette Bynoe, Dean of the Faculty of Earth and Envirnomental Sciences.

This was followed by brief remarks by Reuben Robertson of FAO.

Presidential Advisor Gary Best gave an overview of the issues from a Guyana perspective.

Ms Gomin Camacho spoke on agriculture and youth networking.

Ms Martina Duncan addressed aspects of managing climate change.

Mr Amir Dillawar spoke about climate change, youth and energy.

Dr Devon Gardner talked about Caribbean and energy issues relating to climate change.

The talks by Presidential Advisor Gary Best and Dr Devon Gardner were covered in more detail, especially in relation to oil, in a report by Demerara Waves.

What is a green economy?

The government is aiming for a green economy (see this report) but what is a green economy? It would seem that it is difficult to define easily in practical terms.

According to Wikipedia:

'The green economy is defined as an economy that aims at reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities, and that aims for sustainable development without degrading the environment. It is closely related with ecological economics, but has a more politically applied focus.'

It is said to include:

Renewable energy
Green buildings
Sustainable transport
Water management
Waste management
Land management

And regarding energy (and of special interest to us in Guyana):

"Green economies require green energy generation based on renewable energy to replace fossil fuels as well as energy conservation and efficient energy use."

So we have a long way to go in the energy sector.

Guyana signs Paris Agreement on climate change

Guyana was one of many nations signing the agreement. The statement by President Granger at the event said in part:

"The Cooperative Republic of Guyana, in the short-term, up to 2020, will:
• improve timber monitoring and maintain a high level of timber legality;
• increase value-added activities in the forestry sector so as to augment carbon storage in long-use wood products;
• intensify the sustainable management of our indigenous communities which own and manage 14% of our national territory;
• introduce a national Emissions Reduction Programme (ERP) to add two million hectares under conservation, encourage more efficient mining and logging activities and implement Reduced Impact Logging (RIL).
• invest in solar power, wind power and hydropower to transition more rapidly to renewable sources of energy and reduce our dependence on fossil fuels."

Looks good so far although somewhat vague. Ratification by Guyana is still required.

World Bank report on the internet and development

According to a New York Times article, The World Bank recently released a report (World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends) which had both positive and negative findings regarding the impact of the internet.

"Those who are already well-off and well-educated have been able to take advantage of the Internet economy, the report concluded pointedly, and despite the expansion of Internet access, 60 percent of humanity remains offline."

"...the vast changes wrought by technology have not expanded economic opportunities or improved access to basic public services in ways that many had expected. Rather, the report warned darkly, Internet innovations stand to widen inequalities and even hasten the hollowing out of middle-class employment."

"...it also takes pains to say that expanding access will not be enough for citizens to take advantage of the benefits. It also recommends enabling companies to compete, strengthening the skills of workers so they can obtain the new jobs and making government institutions accountable."

The World Is Not Falling Apart

I posted an item on this topic one year ago and here another from the same source!
An article from Slate pointing out the upward trends.
"The only sound way to appraise the state of the world is to count. How many violent acts has the world seen compared with the number of opportunities? And is that number going up or down? As Bill Clinton likes to say, “Follow the trend lines, not the headlines.” We will see that the trend lines are more encouraging than a news junkie would guess."
Not that there are not downward trends but there are upward trends too!

Climate Resilience Strategy and Action Plan (CRSAP) - draft released

The Office of Climate Change has released the draft CRSAP for Guyana for public review until 18th December. This plan is important and is intended to guide action (and funding) for years to come. This document of nearly 300 pages is fairly technical and cannot be summarised easily so here is a part of the executive summary:

"Climate models project that temperatures will continue to increase and that sea levels and the height of storm surges will rise. Projections also indicate that average annual precipitation will decrease and that the proportion of heavy rainfall events will increase. These in turn are expected to exacerbate adverse social, economic and environmental impacts, and act additional stress factors on systems with vulnerabilities derived from non-climate drivers."

"Specifically, the CRSAP provides:

• A roadmap for the next five years.

• Project Concept Notes for four priority climate resilience programmes which can now be

• developed into full proposals and submitted for funding.

• A summary of the most significant climate risks and required resilience actions across 15

• key sectors. These actions are proposed as the basis for the design of new interventions and

• a pipeline of projects which can be presented for funding and implemented within five years

• and beyond.

• A set of capacity building actions that enhance Guyana’s capacity for national adaptation

• planning and becoming climate resilient to be undertaken within the next five years.

• A strategy to finance the CRSAP inclusive of the PCNs."

World Bank climate change MOOC

This is called 'Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided' and is being hosted by Coursera. It is being well-presented by a selection of experts in the usual Coursera format.  It is not a difficult course especially if you are familiar with the topic. Plenty of discussion. Recommended.

I am still hoping to see more Caribbean participants - only a small handful so far.

Civilisation is advancing!

It seems that, despite the impression made by the media, the world is getting to be a better place. This very interesting report in Slate says:

"The only sound way to appraise the state of the world is to count. How many violent acts has the world seen compared with the number of opportunities? And is that number going up or down? As Bill Clinton likes to say, “Follow the trend lines, not the headlines.” We will see that the trend lines are more encouraging than a news junkie would guess."

After examining the statistics the report concludes:

"The world is not falling apart. The kinds of violence to which most people are vulnerable—homicide, rape, battering, child abuse—have been in steady decline in most of the world. Autocracy is giving way to democracy. Wars between states—by far the most destructive of all conflicts—are all but obsolete. The increase in the number and deadliness of civil wars since 2010 is circumscribed, puny in comparison with the decline that preceded it, and unlikely to escalate."

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report 2014

It is way past time to get serious. Governments need to act together in the interest of mankind. According to a BBC news item:

"The world needs a Plan B on climate change because politicians are failing to reduce carbon emissions, according to a UN report.
It warns governments if they overshoot their short-term carbon targets they will have to cut CO2 even faster in the second half of the century to keep climate change manageable"

And the Washington Post reports:

"At a meeting in Berlin, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Sunday released a report that found that nations still have a chance to fulfill the goal but must aggressively turn away from relying largely on fossil fuels such as coal for energy and replace them with cleaner energy sources such as solar and wind power. To reach their target of 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) over preindustrial levels, nations must work together to lower emissions 'by 40 to 70 percent' of what they were in 2010, the report said."