An end to war?

 Surely mankind is reaching the point when war is something we cannot afford anymore. All our resources are needed to counter climate change and its associated troubles and to restructure our civilisation accordingly.

Bahá’u’lláh foresaw this time:

"The time must come when the imperative necessity for the holding of a vast, an all-embracing assemblage of men will be universally realized. The rulers and kings of the earth must needs attend it, and, participating in its deliberations, must consider such ways and means as will lay the foundations of the world’s Great Peace amongst men. Such a peace demandeth that the Great Powers should resolve, for the sake of the tranquillity of the peoples of the earth, to be fully reconciled among themselves. Should any king take up arms against another, all should unitedly arise and prevent him. If this be done, the nations of the world will no longer require any armaments, except for the purpose of preserving the security of their realms and of maintaining internal order within their territories. This will ensure the peace and composure of every people, government and nation." 

(Gleanings CXVII)

Climate update

 According to a report by the BBC:

"It's now "virtually certain" that 2023 will be the hottest year on record. That's something that no major climate science body expected at the start of the year."

We will be looking to COP28 to lead to some serious action...

More and more sea level rise

 Data from NASA shows worrying levels of sea-level rise. This is explained in a detailed article at Universe Today which begins:

"It probably comes as no surprise to people living in low-lying coastal regions, but sea waters are rising by large, measurable amounts. That assessment comes from NASA, which has analyzed 30 years of sea-level satellite measurements. The news is not good. Since 1993, the seas rose by a total of 9.1 centimeters. Two years ago, it went up by 0.27 centimeters."

More and more greenhouse gases

 It is reported by NOAA that these gases continue to be emitted at dangerous levels. According to a press release:

"Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide, the three greenhouse gases emitted by human activity that are the most significant contributors to climate change, continued their historically high rates of growth in the atmosphere during 2022, according to NOAA scientists."

Guyana and extreme weather

 

According to an informative and timely article in Kaiteur News:

"Over the past few months, Guyana has seen an increase in heavy winds – some that were intense enough to cause damage to homes leaving families with added expenses.

But there might be even more to come."

We can be sure that much more will come. The article goes on to cover many issues related to climate change.

See also from this blog:

Guyana - more storms? (2017) 

Natural gas in Guyana - flaring and venting (2020)

Guyana and sea-level rise. Relocating Georgetown?

Sea levels are rising and much of the coast of Guyana, including the capital, Georgetown, is below sea level at high tide. 

Difficult decisions will have to be made which involve planning decades ahead.

How long do we invest in sea defenses which will eventually be abandoned? When do we start relocating the city and coastal communities inland? We need to start building the infrastructure!

A report in Newsroom addresses the issue.

Methane polluters

 Methane is a more dangerous greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Fortunately it is less common. Recently satellites have been used to pin point sources with a view to stopping it from contaminating the atmosphere. Most is emitted by leaking oil facilities. Guyana is not on the map yet.

See this report from phys.org.

Flooding

We are in the midst of our May-June rainy season. The ITCZ has us in its grip. Unfortunately heavy rain has coincided with higher than usual tides and there is wide-spread flooding. 

The water level in our area is not exceptional. It used to reach this level perhaps once a year, ten years ago. However it has reached close to this level may be 5 times so far this year. I would blame this on climate change and sea-level rise.

Natural gas in Guyana - flaring and venting

As Exxon continues oil production, natural gas is also being produced. There seems to be a lack of clarity about this process so, while I am no expert, I will try to explain what I have learned.

As the oil is extracted natural gas will also come with it. The amount and composition of the gas varies from well to well and time to time. However the gas is largely methane. It is not the same as 'cooking gas' which is propane or butane. Natural gas can be processed to produce 'cooking gas' and other products.

Large amounts of natural gas can be a real problem for the oil company. There seem to be four options for handling it. It is often reinjected back into the well which can increase the amount of oil available for extraction. This requires compressing the gas to force it back down into the well especially if the well is deep as it is for Guyana.

Secondly, to transport the gas to the shore which requires a pipeline on the sea bed which is a big project requiring time and resources to put in place. This may be the best option in the medium term. As I understand it transporting the gas by ship is not an option as this would require liquefying it first - a difficult and energy intensive operation.

Then there is venting which simply invisibly releases the gas into the atmosphere. This is sounds simple but is a very bad idea since methane is a powerful, potent greenhouse gas and will contribute to global warming. There would seem to be other potential hazards too as methane is invisible, inflammable and can be harmful.

And finally there is flaring which means burning the gas in a spectacular plume of flame. If this done properly the gas will be fully converted to carbon dioxide which is also contributes to global warming. However it is much less potent than methane and thus it a much more responsible way than venting to dispose of unusable natural gas.

I am unsure what the current status is here in Guyana regarding natural gas but hope this outline may help understanding. There is clearly no existing pipeline for gas. Reinjection and some flaring does take place.

An issue not mentioned above is leakage of methane. No matter how the gas is handled there will be some amount of leakage. It is the job of the oil company to minimise this as far as possible. Such is the concern about methane that satellites are being used to track sources of methane leaks.

Sources:

Natural gas for domestic demand by 2023

https://guyanachronicle.com/2019/11/07/natural-gas-for-domestic-demand-by-2023/

Natural gas

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas

Environmental Implications of Flaring and Venting in Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production

http://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/html/10.11648.j.ijema.20160406.13.html

Despite Their Promises, Giant Energy Companies Burn Away Vast Amounts of Natural Gas

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/16/climate/natural-gas-flaring-exxon-bp.html

 

Climate change crisis reports

As the crisis deepens three news items caught my attention.

Levels of HFCs rising - The threat from atmospheric HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons) were supposed to have been banished due to international action taken from 2005. However the threat has returned according to a report in Phys.org:

Despite reports that global emissions of the potent greenhouse gas hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) were almost eliminated in 2017, an international team of scientists, led by the University of Bristol, has found atmospheric levels growing at record values.

Call for reduced investment in fossil fuels world-wide - According to the BBC:

The world will face irreversible heating unless firms shift their priorities soon, the outgoing head of the Bank of England has told the BBC.
Mark Carney said the financial sector had begun to curb investment in fossil fuels – but far too slowly.
He said leading pension fund analysis "is that if you add up the policies of all of companies out there, they are consistent with warming of 3.7-3.8C".

Of course Mark Carney is not alone in this view. Some investors are moving in this direction.

How we can meet our climate goals - An article at ScienceAlert reports on research on those "elements most likely to help society limit global warming".

According to the research, the social tipping interventions that could help us do this would be:

• removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivising decentralised energy generation;
• building carbon-neutral cities;
• divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels;
• revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels;
• strengthening climate education and engagement; and
• disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions.

Of course, many of these mechanisms are already in process and evident in society to some degree, but whether any have yet reached a tipping point leading to a rapid societal transformation is debatable.

Climate tipping points

There has been increasing mention of tipping points recently in relation to climate change. A tipping point is "the point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant enough to cause a larger, more important change".

For example a small rise in temperature causes hot dry brush to ignite or a small rise in water level causes a dam to collapse.

Such events are usually very hard to reverse.

One climate-related tipping mentioned is the collapse of the Amazon rainforest into a drier savannah ecosystem. The forest in Brazil may be approaching this fate. See this MSN report. Once this happens there is not enough rain to regrow the forest. Are the forests in Guyana changing to savannah?

Other tipping points concerns the melting of ice in the Artic and Antartic. Once the ice melts the exposed land absorbs the energy of the sun better and warms faster. See this BBC report.

Other tipping points concern the release of methane from melting permafrost in the Artic and from frozen deposits below cold seas. Methane accelerates global warming.

Wikipedia - country carbon footprints?

Wikipedia is a great resource for information about countries and a favorite of students. However there is a lack of prominent information on country pages about greenhouse gas emissions and related data. Do we not need a section or subsection giving at least the current status?

A quick check of a few countries revealed surprisingly minimal information buried in various sections or nothing at all. One has to go to general articles on these issues to find useful data. Is there some reason for this that I am missing? There seems to be a lack of environmental info in general on country pages.

History will likely judge countries on their action or lack of action on this issue. It deserves more attention. It is up to internet users to take note and get busy. Perhaps Wikipedia can give some suggestions of how to format this data starting with something basic, so that countries can be easily compared.

I hope to work on generating interest in this here in Guyana.

Edited Dec 14

Atmospheric carbon dioxide hits another high

... as explained in this BBC report:

"Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases once again reached new highs in 2018.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the increase in CO2 was just above the average rise recorded over the last decade."

The fact that this just keeps going up and up really shows how far we have to go to take it seriously. Slowing the rise is not good enough. Stopping the rise is not. We to get it going DOWN and fast. Even then it will takes years to really make a difference. It seems not to be lack of knowledge but of political will or due to deliberate blindness.

Guyana warms up

A great post on the Facebook page of the Office of Climate Change gives a link to a service available through the Hydromet Service (Maproom) showing the upward trend of local maximum temperatures for July to September - see first chart. A change of variable also shows an upward trend in rainfall - see second chart.

The post says:

"Maximum Temperatures continue to rise annually. The trend shows for July to September, the maximum temperature for Demerara Mahaica, Region 4, has been continuously rising since 1985."

Apart from taking urgent action to cut our carbon emissions we should be taking action to mitigate against the changes e.g. advising all those building homes and offices.

Also relevant here is the post I made about increasing storms.

Next 18 months crucial for action on climate change

A BBC report points this out noting that a key meeting takes place in late 2020 - COP26. Action is needed before then. Time is running out.

"The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute.
The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time.

"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

"One of the understated headlines in last year's IPCC report was that global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet below 1.5C.
Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of heating by 2100 not 1.5."

It is too late to stop climate change - it's happening already - but we must act to reduce its ferocity.

NASA study looks at climate prediction accuracy

According to a post on Universe Today in this new NASA study:

"...scientists analyzed the GISTEMP data to see if past predictions of rising temperatures were accurate. They needed to know that any uncertainty within their data was correctly accounted for. The goal was to make sure that the models they use are robust enough to rely on in the future. The answer: Yes they are. Within 1/20th a degree Celsius."

The above map (NASA) represents global temperature anomalies averaged from 2008 through 2012. Note that for our part of the world there seems to be a rise of between half and one degree Celsius.

BBC looks at Guyana

Our oil prospects seem to have attracted attention this month. One report starts:

"South America's second poorest nation is bracing for an oil boom that could catapult it to the top of the continent's rich list - and beyond. But can Guyana avoid the so-called oil curse and ensure that its newfound riches benefit all Guyanese?"

This links to an Assignment report (podcast):
"Guyana - bracing for the oil boom"

Meanwhile some are urging caution in the light of changing future prospects of fossil fuels. An article in Stabroek News by Melinda Janki warns:

"Even if the present economics of oil added up (and they clearly don’t) the urgent need to halt global warming means oil will cease to be viable within a few years."

There is general agreement that there will be a time of 'peak oil' after which world demand will drop. Some say it will occur around 2025, other not til 2030s or 2040s. If we wish to curb global warming we had better wish for an early date.

The huge cost of global warming in 2018

Global warming is with us and costing us dearly. A report by Christian Aid, as reported by the BBC, counts the cost.

"The charity's report identified ten events that cost more than $1bn each, with four costing more than $7bn each.
Scientists have shown that the chances of heat waves in Europe were influenced directly by human-related warming.
Other events, say the authors, are due to shifts in weather patterns, said to be a consequence of climate change.
According to the report the most financially costly disasters linked to rising temperatures were Hurricanes Florence and Michael, with costs said to be around $17bn for the former, and $15bn for the latter."

The landmark 2018 report on climate change from the IPCC

It seems to me that the main new thing here is the urgency resulting from the failure of decision-makers to be realistic and stop kicking the can down the road... It is too late to stop damaging climate change. It remains to try and limit the disastrous consequences. 

According to a BBC report:

"Keeping to the preferred target of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels will mean "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society".
It will be hugely expensive - but the window of opportunity remains open."

Clearly the summary of the report is phrased to try and get action from decision-makers and attention from media, worded by desperate, frustrated scientists.
According to the BBC report:

"The critical 33-page Summary for Policymakers certainly bears the hallmarks of difficult negotiations between climate researchers determined to stick to what their studies have shown and political representatives more concerned with economies and living standards." 

""Scientists might want to write in capital letters, 'ACT NOW, IDIOTS,' but they need to say that with facts and numbers," said Kaisa Kosonen, of Greenpeace, who was an observer at the negotiations. "And they have.""

IPCC press release.

Satellite observations find sea-level rise accelerating

A report from NASA says:

"This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise...
If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 -- enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities..."

"Nerem and his team used climate models to account for the volcanic effects and other datasets to determine the El Niño/La Niña effects, ultimately uncovering the underlying rate and acceleration of sea level rise over the last quarter century."