Climate tipping points

There has been increasing mention of tipping points recently in relation to climate change. A tipping point is "the point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant enough to cause a larger, more important change".

For example a small rise in temperature causes hot dry brush to ignite or a small rise in water level causes a dam to collapse.

Such events are usually very hard to reverse.

One climate-related tipping mentioned is the collapse of the Amazon rainforest into a drier savannah ecosystem. The forest in Brazil may be approaching this fate. See this MSN report. Once this happens there is not enough rain to regrow the forest. Are the forests in Guyana changing to savannah?

Other tipping points concerns the melting of ice in the Artic and Antartic. Once the ice melts the exposed land absorbs the energy of the sun better and warms faster. See this BBC report.

Other tipping points concern the release of methane from melting permafrost in the Artic and from frozen deposits below cold seas. Methane accelerates global warming.

Wikipedia - country carbon footprints?

Wikipedia is a great resource for information about countries and a favorite of students. However there is a lack of prominent information on country pages about greenhouse gas emissions and related data. Do we not need a section or subsection giving at least the current status?

A quick check of a few countries revealed surprisingly minimal information buried in various sections or nothing at all. One has to go to general articles on these issues to find useful data. Is there some reason for this that I am missing? There seems to be a lack of environmental info in general on country pages.

History will likely judge countries on their action or lack of action on this issue. It deserves more attention. It is up to internet users to take note and get busy. Perhaps Wikipedia can give some suggestions of how to format this data starting with something basic, so that countries can be easily compared.

I hope to work on generating interest in this here in Guyana.

Edited Dec 14

Atmospheric carbon dioxide hits another high

... as explained in this BBC report:

"Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases once again reached new highs in 2018.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the increase in CO2 was just above the average rise recorded over the last decade."

The fact that this just keeps going up and up really shows how far we have to go to take it seriously. Slowing the rise is not good enough. Stopping the rise is not. We to get it going DOWN and fast. Even then it will takes years to really make a difference. It seems not to be lack of knowledge but of political will or due to deliberate blindness.

A call to selfless and steadfast service

"If the teachings brought by Bahá’u’lláh are what will enable humanity to advance to the
highest levels of unity, then one must search the soul for the right response. The multitudes who recognized the Báb were summoned to heroism, and their magnificent response is recorded by history. Let every one who is awake to the condition of the world, and to the persistent evils that warp the lives of its inhabitants, heed Bahá’u’lláh’s call to selfless and steadfast service — heroism for the present age. What else will rescue the world but the efforts of countless souls who each make the welfare of humanity their principal, their dominating concern?"

From a message by the Universal House of Justice, October 2019

Who were the Báb and Bahá’u’lláh?

Baha'i Bicentenary 2019

On October 29 the world-wide Baha'i community celebrates the birth of the Bab in 1819. Activities will taking place in many, many communities around the planet including many in Guyana. See the international site here for more.

For more about local activities call 226-5952 or see the web site.

Guyana warms up

A great post on the Facebook page of the Office of Climate Change gives a link to a service available through the Hydromet Service (Maproom) showing the upward trend of local maximum temperatures for July to September - see first chart. A change of variable also shows an upward trend in rainfall - see second chart.

The post says:

"Maximum Temperatures continue to rise annually. The trend shows for July to September, the maximum temperature for Demerara Mahaica, Region 4, has been continuously rising since 1985."

Apart from taking urgent action to cut our carbon emissions we should be taking action to mitigate against the changes e.g. advising all those building homes and offices.

Also relevant here is the post I made about increasing storms.

Guyana rainy season prolonged

Just to note that the rainy seasons has been unusually long. The ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) did not move north away from Guyana until about a week ago. We are now having hot dry weather more usual for this time of year.

Next 18 months crucial for action on climate change

A BBC report points this out noting that a key meeting takes place in late 2020 - COP26. Action is needed before then. Time is running out.

"The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute.
The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time.

"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

"One of the understated headlines in last year's IPCC report was that global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet below 1.5C.
Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of heating by 2100 not 1.5."

It is too late to stop climate change - it's happening already - but we must act to reduce its ferocity.

Wind energy for Guyana

According to Guyana Chronicle progress is being made with the Hope Wind Farm Project which plans to set up wind turbines along the coast. Project General Manager for Hope Energy Development (HED), Dr. John Sydow, said:

“We are looking at four wind turbines at Hope Beach. That will supply about seven per cent of all of GPL’s megawatt hours they are distributing.”

Discussions with various stakeholders and interest groups are taking place. The idea was first explored in 2001. Let us hope that this project is soon realised and replicated in Berbice and Essequibo.

Meanwhile the UK is now getting less than half its energy from fossil fuels according to the BBC. This includes 19% from wind power. By the 2030s fossil fuels should account for only 10%.

NASA study looks at climate prediction accuracy

According to a post on Universe Today in this new NASA study:

"...scientists analyzed the GISTEMP data to see if past predictions of rising temperatures were accurate. They needed to know that any uncertainty within their data was correctly accounted for. The goal was to make sure that the models they use are robust enough to rely on in the future. The answer: Yes they are. Within 1/20th a degree Celsius."

The above map (NASA) represents global temperature anomalies averaged from 2008 through 2012. Note that for our part of the world there seems to be a rise of between half and one degree Celsius.

BBC looks at Guyana

Our oil prospects seem to have attracted attention this month. One report starts:

"South America's second poorest nation is bracing for an oil boom that could catapult it to the top of the continent's rich list - and beyond. But can Guyana avoid the so-called oil curse and ensure that its newfound riches benefit all Guyanese?"

This links to an Assignment report (podcast):
"Guyana - bracing for the oil boom"

Meanwhile some are urging caution in the light of changing future prospects of fossil fuels. An article in Stabroek News by Melinda Janki warns:

"Even if the present economics of oil added up (and they clearly don’t) the urgent need to halt global warming means oil will cease to be viable within a few years."

There is general agreement that there will be a time of 'peak oil' after which world demand will drop. Some say it will occur around 2025, other not til 2030s or 2040s. If we wish to curb global warming we had better wish for an early date.

National Baha'i Convention 2019

The Baha'i community held its annual National Convention at the end of May to elect the national Baha'i council for Guyana (the National Spiritual Assembly) for 2019. Delegates from across the country consulted, prayed and voted. The election took about an hour and a couple of hours to count. No campaigning. No contention. Some humour.

The rest of the two-day event was spent consulting. Interestingly most of those elected were women. The photo shows some of those attending the sessions.

Massive solar storm found - but long ago

Solar storms usually cause no more than aurora which are unknown to us here in the tropics. But if they are really bad they can disrupt electrical and communication systems all over the planet. Evidence has been found of a really big one some 2000 years ago. There was another big one which is well known about 150 years ago. According to a BBC report:

"Scientists have found evidence of a huge blast of radiation from the Sun that hit Earth more than 2,000 years ago.
The result has important implications for the present, because solar storms can disrupt modern technology.
The team found evidence in Greenland ice cores that the Earth was bombarded with solar proton particles in 660BC.
The event was about 10 times more powerful than any since modern instrumental records began."

We are now reaching the point of being able to detect storms heading our way from the sun. Protecting our technology against these rare events is difficult so shutting down is likely the only option.

See also 'Solar storm' in Wikipedia

Race - Baha'i viewpoint

This must be one of the most misunderstood issues of our time. Here is an article outlining the Baha'i view which is consistent with science and reason. There are many supplementary articles on the same site.

Essentially we are all migrants and the only race is the human race. Most religions clearly teach that God is responsible for all of us being here. Science also agrees that we are all one race. What most people are talking about when they mention race is a cultural thing not a hard reality. And it is always changing. We do create trouble for ourselves... 😊

The living world under our feet

Recent discoveries have shown that we need to realise that there are many living things in the earth and rock below us going far down (kilometers) into the earth. Textbook writers take note!

According to a report from the Guardian:

The Earth is far more alive than previously thought, according to “deep life” studies that reveal a rich ecosystem beneath our feet that is almost twice the size of all the world’s oceans.
Despite extreme heat, no light, minuscule nutrition and intense pressure, scientists estimate this subterranean biosphere is teeming with between 15bn and 23bn tonnes of micro-organisms, hundreds of times the combined weight of every human on the planet.