The huge cost of global warming in 2018

Global warming is with us and costing us dearly. A report by Christian Aid, as reported by the BBC, counts the cost.

"The charity's report identified ten events that cost more than $1bn each, with four costing more than $7bn each.
Scientists have shown that the chances of heat waves in Europe were influenced directly by human-related warming.
Other events, say the authors, are due to shifts in weather patterns, said to be a consequence of climate change.
According to the report the most financially costly disasters linked to rising temperatures were Hurricanes Florence and Michael, with costs said to be around $17bn for the former, and $15bn for the latter."

Declining fertility

For many decades the rising human population of our planet has been regarded as a major threat to civilisation, often featured in books and movies. It now becomes clearer that fertility is actually declining in more and more developed countries such as North America, Europe and Japan.

According to a BBC report (my emphasis):

In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime. The fertility rate all but halved to 2.4 children per woman by last year.
But that masks huge variation between nations.
The fertility rate in Niger, west Africa, is 7.1, but in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus women are having one child, on average.
In the UK, the rate is 1.7, similar to most Western European countries.

If the rate is below 2.1 then the population will start to shrink. In some countries the population may be maintained only by increasing life expectancy and immigration each of which have other issues. This finding has huge implications for the future.

The landmark 2018 report on climate change from the IPCC

It seems to me that the main new thing here is the urgency resulting from the failure of decision-makers to be realistic and stop kicking the can down the road... It is too late to stop damaging climate change. It remains to try and limit the disastrous consequences. 

According to a BBC report:

"Keeping to the preferred target of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels will mean "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society".
It will be hugely expensive - but the window of opportunity remains open."

Clearly the summary of the report is phrased to try and get action from decision-makers and attention from media, worded by desperate, frustrated scientists.
According to the BBC report:

"The critical 33-page Summary for Policymakers certainly bears the hallmarks of difficult negotiations between climate researchers determined to stick to what their studies have shown and political representatives more concerned with economies and living standards." 

""Scientists might want to write in capital letters, 'ACT NOW, IDIOTS,' but they need to say that with facts and numbers," said Kaisa Kosonen, of Greenpeace, who was an observer at the negotiations. "And they have.""

IPCC press release.

Some ongoing wildlife research

A very interesting blog by Molly Crookshank who is studying Wildlife Biology and Conservation at Edinburgh Napier University. She has been with a group at Iwokrama through Operation Walacea. Her blog has comments and pictures about wildlife in Guyana.

Guyana Earth Tremor

We experienced a tremor of about magnitude 4 here on Tuesday 21st August as a result of a major (7+) earthquake in Venezuela. One of the strongest tremors I can recall in the past 40 or so years.

No significant damage in Guyana that I am aware of. Minor damage was reported in Trinidad - but not minor to the owner of the car that got totalled by a falling chunk of concrete... Some damage was reported in Venezuela and possibly some loss of life.

See also
https://guyanachronicle.com/2018/08/21/tremor-shakes-guyana
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuela_earthquakes

Sub-surface lake on Mars

Exciting news from Mars. Sub-surface lakes have been found beneath the south pole of Mars. And by an orbiter which has been orbiting Mars collecting data for years. According to a BBC news item:

"What they believe to be a lake sits under the planet's south polar ice cap, and is about 20km (12 miles) across.
Lake beds like those explored by Nasa's Curiosity rover show water was present on the surface of Mars in the past.
However, the planet's climate has since cooled due to its thin atmosphere, leaving most of its water locked up in ice.
The result is exciting because scientists have long searched for signs of present-day liquid water on Mars, but these have come up empty or yielded ambiguous findings. It will also interest those studying the possibilities for life beyond Earth - though it does not yet raise the stakes in the search for biology."

Blog theme

Don't panic... am trying a new theme so things look different.

Caribbean ICT Roadshow in Guyana in July

The Caribbean Telecommunications Union (CTU) brought its Roadshow here last year. Next month it is bringing its updated Roadshow here with a new program. According to this article at the Ministry of Public Telecommunications (MoPT):

Guyana’s Roadshow will place special emphasis on raising awareness of and educating on the principles of 21st Century Governments – governments that are citizen-centric seamless and make effective use of ICT to deliver services to its citizens, internal and external clients. The Roadshow seeks to lay a foundation for establishing Governments throughout the Caribbean, which are fit for purpose in the 21st Century.

and

The Roadshow’s many activities and workshops will include:
• e-Agriculture Workshop – 9th to 11th July 2018
• 21st Century Government Workshop – 9th July 2018
• ICT4PWD Workshops, targeting the Deaf and Blind – 9th July 2018
• Digital Financial Services – 10th July 2018
• ICT4All – 10th July 2018
• ICT and The Justice Sector – 11th July 2018
• Innovator’s Forum – 11th July 2018
• Future Casting Forum – 11th to 12th July 2018
• Cyber Security Workshop – 12th July 2018
• Youth Fair and Forum – 11th to 13th July 2018

Community building by Baha'i's around the world

This professional video describes remarkable and effective grass-roots community building by Baha'is in many locations from major cities to remote rural villages. It works.

A article at Bahá’í World News Service says in part:

"...the film tells a story of transformation unfolding in 24 communities representing different realities and contexts. It focuses on three main themes: universal participation as a path toward collective prosperity, the vital role of young people in the transformation of society, and the emergence of a range of social and economic development initiatives that spring up from the spiritual aspirations of a population."

The breakdown below gives the locations and the timing.

Chapter One: Embracing Large Numbers 6:53
Gran Canaria, Canary Islands 7:32
Sydney, Australia 11:27
Delhi, India 18:33
Daga, Papua New Guinea 24:52

Chapter Two: Youth Summoned to the Vanguard 30:37
London, United Kingdom 36:05
Mwinilunga East, Zambia 39:48
Baku, Azerbaijan 42:22
San Diego, United States 47:40

Chapter Three: Stirrings of Social Action 52:00
East Kanchanpur, Nepal 53:49
Chişinău, Moldova 54:53
Tanna, Vanuatu 55:55
Batouri-Kette, Cameroon 56:33
Norte Del Cauca, Colombia 59:57
Vancouver, Canada 1:03:37
Bangui, Central African Republic 1:06:11
South Tarawa, Kiribati 1:09:20

Conclusion 1:13:09

12th International Baha’i Convention takes place in Haifa

A small group of delegates from Guyana are attending this event. A report from Bahá’í World News Service says:

"The International Convention is a unique gathering held every five years in Haifa, the administrative and spiritual center of the Baha’i world community. Delegates hail from virtually every nation. Over the course of the convention, they participate in a series of consultative sessions and elect the Faith’s international governing body, the Universal House of Justice."

Satellite observations find sea-level rise accelerating

A report from NASA says:

"This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise...
If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 -- enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities..."

"Nerem and his team used climate models to account for the volcanic effects and other datasets to determine the El Niño/La Niña effects, ultimately uncovering the underlying rate and acceleration of sea level rise over the last quarter century."

Drinking water and salt

Water from wells and many surface sources contains small amounts of salt. For some of us this can be a health issue.

Some useful information about this can be found in this article from the Government of Western Australia. According to this article for a healthy person the salt content becomes a concern if the water tastes salty.

However for those who have to keep to a low salt diet it gets more difficult.

"...the following people should be aware of the level of sodium (salt) in drinking water when the level is greater than 20 mg/L:

• Persons who are monitoring their salt intake for high blood pressure 
• Persons with cardiovascular or heart disease 
• Persons with kidney problems or
• Persons on low sodium diets."

From what I have been told measuring the salt content is not easy and this would at present be likely to mean sending samples outside Guyana.

On a quick check most bottled water gave no salt content information on the label. One brand gave a salt content of 20 mg/L and one other stated that the water contained no salt. The GWI website did not provide such information either.

The salt content of our local water can be adversely affected by dry conditions and by salt water intrusion. As we experience climate change this will need to be monitored more closely.

Petroleum and Climate Change in Guyana’s Future

In October 2016 Professor Mandle gave a talk on climate change here in Georgetown. I was not aware of it at the time but write it now as I feel it covered some keys points which have not had public attention so far. It was brought to my attention by the Vice-Chancellor of University of Guyana in his address at a similar function recently. It was clear that he also felt it was an important address.

Below is a review of a few keys points of the talk.

The talk was entitled 'Petroleum and Climate Change in Guyana’s Future' and was delivered for the inaugural C.Y.Thomas Distinguished Lecture as a part of the week-long celebration of the University of Guyana 50th Graduation on Thursday 27th October 2016. It delivered by the distinuished Professor Jay Mandle of Colgate University, New York.

The talk consists of some nineteen pages. It can be found online in text format here. One of several references is to an important ECLAC report from 2011 entitled "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Coastal and Human Settlements Sector in Guyana" which is available online here.

The talk starts with some background on the widely respected Professor Thomas. This brief review is concerned primarily with climate change so we will move on to where Professor Mandle begins to focus on Guyana and climate change.

The Coast - in this section some geography is outlined and the vulnerability of Guyana to flooding due to its long-standing and barely adequate system of sea walls and gravity drainage.
Summarising he says:

"In short, global climate change means that the Guyanese Coast will be invaded by both salt and fresh water flooding."

Petroleum - the prospect of large incomes from oil is outlined. The challenge of corruption is identified.

Petro-dollars - four claims on oil dollars are given, namely: a fund for unexpected government spending, poverty-alleviation, increased spending on normal government functions,  a sovereign wealth fund.

The Problem of Adaptation - the question of adaption of the coastal area to climate change and sea level rise is considered.

"With the consequences of climate looming, Guyana would seem to be facing the need to choose between two competing strategies: whether to try to protect the Coast with adaptation, or alternatively, to initiate a substantial if not total relocation to the Interior."

And "...adaptation on the Coast is not a viable option over the long run". 

Interior Development - planning for probable relocation inland will be very challenging and expensive.

"Guyana will have to relocate at least sections of its population, economy, government, and civil society to the Interior. Doing so will be a radical departure for the country."

"Rice, sugar and ground provisions are grown on the Coast. None of these is likely to be part of the country’s comparative advantage structure in the Interior. Entirely new crops will have to be cultivated and new industries will have to be built..."

So it seems sugar has no future in Guyana.

"Access to and from the Interior at the moment is too limited for it to support the level of economic activity that will be necessary."

"Petro-dollars will make it possible to finance much of this investment in infrastructure."

The Need to Debate - public consideration of the issue has yet to begin. This concludes the talk.

"There is much excitement concerning the country’s future as a petroleum exporter. But the need to use those funds to settle the Interior has not been the subject of public discussion. Overcoming this reticence, and debating the merits of Interior development is something that should begin as soon as possible."

Reference is made to the talk in the University of Guyana publication 'Renaissance' to be found here.